Could World War III start in the Philippines?

Tensions are rising in the South China Sea again. Recent videos from the Philippine military showed “Chinese Coast Guard personnel ramming and boarding Philippine naval boats and confiscating their weapons,” said Deutsche Welle. It’s the latest in a series of frequent clashes between the two countries that observers worry could eventually spark a larger conflict involving the United States. “The risk of an accident that escalates to conflict is high,” said Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

There’s a risk that China and the United States — which has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines — are “sleepwalking toward World War III” in the region, the Global Policy Institute’s Bob Savic said in the Asia Times. China recently announced it would arrest foreign nationals in disputed waters it claims as its own; Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., meanwhile, has said he would treat the death of any of his countrymen in the encounters as an “act of war.” It’s easy to see how things could get out of hand, even with diplomats on both sides working to prevent escalation. “A peaceful outcome should not be taken for granted.”