By Free MLB Picks For Today 7/11/2024
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Pick Prediction 7/11/2024
Guardians at Tigers—Spencer Howard will start for Cleveland. Howard appeared in seven games with an ERA of 5.63 with WHIP of 1.83. The righthander fans 18.4% with 9.6% walks. Ground balls come in at 36.3% with 0.75 home runs per nine innings. Jack Flaherty is the starter for Detroit. Flaherty has 15 starts with an ERA of 3.24 with WHIP of 1.00. The righty has an elite K rate of 33% with 4% walks. Ground balls dealt at 44.2% with 1.31 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Cleveland bullpen on the road has an ERA of 2.84. The Tigers pen at home has an ERA of 4.58. The Guardians in their past ten games are batting .251. Their pitching staff holds opponents to .231 hitting on the road. The Tigers are 20-21 as a favorite with a -7.03-unit loss and sit 9-20 against teams with a .540 or higher win percentage with a -10.8-unit loss. Play Cleveland +122.
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick Prediction 7/11/2024
Rockies at Reds—Austin Gomber will start for Colorado. Gomber in 17 starts in 2024 produces an ERA of 4.47 with WHIP of 1.29. The lefthander is striking out 15.7% with 6.1% walks. Ground balls dealt at 41.8% with 1.52 home runs per nine innings. Hunter Greene starts for Cincinnati. Greene has 18 starts with an ERA of 3.45 and WHIP of 1.14. The righthander has a K mark of 26.7% with 9.9% walks. Ground balls sit at 34.2% with 0.78 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
In their past ten games the Reds are batting .211. They are 15-17 as a home favorite with a -7.10-unit loss. The team record behind Greene is 5-13 with a -7.6-unit loss. Play Colorado on run line +1.5 runs at -125.
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets MLB Pick Prediction 7/11/2024
Nationals at Mets—MacKenzie Gore will start for Washington. Gore in 18 starts on the season provides an ERA of 3.83 with WHIP of 1.44. The lefthander fans 27% with 8.2% walks. Ground balls are 34.7% with 0.67 home runs per nine innings. David Peterson to start for New York. Peterson has 7 starts with an ERA of 3.58 with WHIP of 1.46. The lefty has seen his Ks fall to 16.3% with 9.6% walks. Ground balls served at 53.8% with 0.96 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.70 does suggest a rise in ERA should form hold.
The Pick:
New York has won seven of nine against Washington. The Nationals bat .227 against left-handed starters. The Mets are hitting .262 against left-handed starters and putting up 5.7 runs per game against them. The Nationals bullpen has an ERA of 4.38 on the road. Their pitching staff surrenders .254 batting on the road. The team record behind Peterson is 6-1 with a +4.48-unit return. Play New York -133.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Pick Prediction 7/11/2024
Pirates at Brewers—Paul Skenes is the starter for Pittsburgh. Skenes in 10 starts in 2024 produces an ERA of 2.12 with WHIP of 1.01. The rookie righthander has an elite 33.6% strikeout rate with 5.2% walks. Ground balls served at 47.5% with 1.06 home runs per nine innings. Aaron Civale will start for Milwaukee. Civale has 18 starts with an ERA of 5.18 with WHIP of 1.39. The righty is striking out 22.9% with 7.5% walks. Ground balls served at 32.5% with 1.86 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Milwaukee is batting .258 against righthanded starters and putting up 5.1 runs per game on them. Pittsburgh bats only .225 against righthanded starters. The Brewers have a +33-run differential at home. They are 28-14 at home with a +8.02-unit return. Pittsburgh is 18-19 as a favorite with a -5.68-unit loss. Play Milwaukee +133.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Pick Prediction 7/11/2024
Blue Jays at Giants—Kevin Gausman will start for Toronto. Gausman has 18 starts on the year puts up an ERA of 4.64 with WHIP of 1.34. The veteran fans 24% with 6.4% walks. Ground balls dealt at 37.7% with 1.30 home runs per nine innings. Jordan Hicks is the starter for San Francisco. Hicks in 18 starts has an ERA of 3.47 with WHIP of 1.32. The righthander strikes out 21.2% with 9% walks. Ground ball rate of 50.4% with 0.89 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Toronto is batting .222 on the road. Their bullpen has an ERA of 4.32 on the road. The Blue Jays are 11-30 as an underdog losing -16.72 units. San Francisco is 26-19 at home with a +3.25-unit return. Toronto is 8-10 behind Gausman with a -3.94-unit loss. Play San Francisco -118.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Pick Prediction 7/11/2024
Dodgers at Phillies—Landon Knack will start for Los Angeles. Knack has seven starts in 2024 carrying an ERA of 2.86 with WHIP of 0.98. The rookie righthander strikes out 22.3% with 6.5% walks. Ground balls served at 29.9% with 1.82 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 4.95 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form. Aaron Nola to start for Philadelphia. Nola in 18 starts has an ERA of 3.48 with WHIP of 1.03. The veteran fans 23.8% with 5.6% walks. Ground balls dished at 45.3% with 1.27 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Philadelphia is batting .256 in their past ten games. They have a +93-run differential at home. Their pitching staff allows .221 hitting at home. The Phillies are now 35-14 at home with a +6.39-unit return. LA is now 1-6 as a road underdog with a -5.03-unit loss. Philadelphia is 14-4 behind Nola with a +4.48-unit return. Play Philadelphia -148.
Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Pick Prediction 7/11/2024
Cubs at Orioles—Justin Steele will start for Chicago. Steele in 13 starts in 2024 deals with an ERA of 2.95 with WHIP of 1.00. The lefthander strikes out 24% with 5.6% walks. Ground balls served at 44% with 0.91 home runs per nine innings. Albert Suarez is the starter for Baltimore. Suarez in 18 appearances has an ERA of 2.48 with WHIP of 1.21. The righthander fans 18.6% with 8.4% walks. Grounders dealt at 33.5% with 0.55 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 3.55 does suggest a rise in ERA based on form.
The Pick:
Baltimore is batting .262 against left-handed starters and putting up 5.4 runs per game against them. Chicago bats .227 on the road. Their bullpen on the road has an ERA of 3.95. The Cubs run differential is -36 on the road where they sit 19-28 with a -6.8-unit loss. Chicago record behind Steele is 4-9 with a -5.84-unit loss. Play Baltimore -131.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Pick Prediction 7/11/2024
Yankees at Rays—Nestor Cortes to start for New York. Cortes has 19 starts on the season dealing an ERA of 3.41 with WHIP of 1.08. The lefthander strikes out 23.8% with 4.5% walks. Ground balls are 30% with 1.22 home runs per nine innings. Shane Baz is the starter for Tampa Bay. Baz in his 2024 debut allowed three earned runs with six strikeouts in six innings at Texas. The righthander missed 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He has an ERA of 4.08 with WHIP of 1.14 in ten career starts striking out 54 batters in 46 1/3rd innings.
The Pick:
Tampa Bay is batting .259 against left-handed starters and putting up 4.5 runs per game against them. New York in their past five games is batting .222. Tampa Bay pitching holds opponents to .223 batting at home. The team record behind Cortes is 7-12 with a -6.87-unit loss. Cortes has an ERA of 5.63 on the road this season and it was 5.54 last season. Play Tampa Bay +106.
Oakland Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Pick Prediction 7/11/2024
Athletics at Red Sox—Luis Medina to start for Oakland. Medina has 7 starts on the campaign producing an ERA of 4.37 with WHIP of 1.54. The righthander strikes out 15.9% with 11.5% walks. Ground balls served at 37.2% with 0.51 home runs per nine innings. Tanner Houck is the starter for Boston. Houck in 18 starts puts up an ERA of 2.68 with WHIP of 1.05. The righty is fanning 23.3% with 5.1% walks. Ground balls come in at 55.2% with limited home run damage.
The Pick:
Oakland bullpen has an ERA of 3.78 on the road. In their past ten games the Athletics are hitting .251 and putting up 6.3 runs per game. Boston is 13-16 as the home favorite with a -7.81-unit loss. They are three games under .500 at home with a -21-run differential. Play Oakland on the run line +1.5 runs at -113.
Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros MLB Pick Prediction 7/11/2024
Marlins at Astros—Roddery Munoz will start for Miami. Munoz appeared in eight games in 2024 carrying an ERA of 5.48 with WHIP of 1.47. The rookie righthander strikes out 20.5% with 12.3% walks. Ground balls dealt at 30.8% with 1.57 home runs per nine innings. A FIP of 7.45 does suggest a rise in ERA based on his form. Jake Bloss expected to start for Houston. Bloss in his MLB debut allowed two earned runs with two strikeouts in 3 2/3rd innings at home to Baltimore. The righthander was a third-round pick in 2023 who put up good numbers in the minors the past two seasons.
The Pick:
Houston is batting .260 against righthanded starters. In their past ten games they have put up 6.3 runs per game. In this period the Marlins are batting .219. Their run differential is -50 on the road. The Astros have covered the run line in 8 of 10. Play Houston on run line -1.5 runs at -126.
Seattle Mariners vs. LA Angels MLB Pick Prediction 7/11/2024
Mariners at Angels—Luis Castillo will start for Seattle. Castillo in 19 starts on the season delivers an ERA of 3.72 with WHIP of 1.18. The veteran fans 24.3% with 7% walks. Ground balls come in at 36.3% with 1.21 home runs per nine innings. Jack Kochanowicz to start for LA. Kochanowicz will make his MLB debut getting the call up from Double A. The righthander was a third-round pick in 2019 our of high school. His minor league numbers have not been impressive. He has an ERA of 4.55 in 16 starts in Double A this season striking out 79 batters in 91 innings.
The Pick:
Seattle has won nine of ten against LA. In their past ten games the Angels are hitting .217. They are 14-25 as a home underdog with a -7.47-unit loss. LA has a -44-run differential at home. Play Seattle -150.
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Pick Prediction 7/11/2024
Braves at Diamondbacks—Max Fried will start for Atlanta. Fried has 17 starts on the campaign dealing with an ERA of 3.18 with WHIP of 1.15. The lefthander is striking out 21.2% with 7.5% walks. Ground balls dished at 58.6% with 0.71 home runs per nine innings. Brandon Pfaadt to start for Arizona. Pfaadt has 18 starts with an ERA of 4.19 with WHIP of 1.19. The righthander fans 22.4% with 5.8% walks. Ground balls are 41.7% with 1.17 home runs per nine innings.
The Pick:
Atlanta bullpen has an ERA of 303 on the road this season. The Diamondbacks sit with an ERA of 4.29 from their pen at home. The Braves have a +30-run differential on the road and their pitching staff holds opponents to .221 batting on the road. Arizona pitching is surrendering .271 batting at home to opponents. The team mark behind Fried is 12-5 with a +2.37-unit return. Atlanta is 5-1 against Arizona this year. The Diamondbacks are 4-11 as a home underdog with a -7.1-unit loss. Play Atlanta -139.
