By We’ve got ourselves an unusually large MLB slate for a Monday, but I’ll never complain about an excess of baseball. That just means there’s more opportunity to find some value on the diamond and on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s dive in and break it all down.
Over 7.5 (+105)
Taking the over in a game started by Tarik Skubal? Surely I must be going mad. Not quite. Well, I probably am, but it’s not yet manifesting in poor bets. Sneakily, these have been two of the best lineups in baseball across the past month. Skubal’s also been sort of mortal within that same time frame. Going back to June 14, the left-hander is in possession of a 3.47 ERA and a 3.35 FIP. He’s surrendered 1.24 opponent home runs per nine within that stretch, as well. Obviously those numbers aren’t bad, yet they’re merely pedestrian in a campaign where Skubal, on occasion, has appeared super human. For their part, the Guardians have feasted on LHPs in 2024, posting a .175 ISO and a 116 wRC+ within the split. I have faith that they’ll score at least a couple runs on Monday evening.
The rest of the damage will come from the Tigers. Detroit has been mashing the baseball the past few weeks, entering this series with a .218 ISO and a 127 wRC+ in the month of July — each representing the third-highest mark in baseball. I’d expect the good times to keep rolling in a matchup with Carlos Carrasco. The 37-year-old is long past his prime with a fastball that keeps losing velocity each and every season. Since the beginning of 2023, Carrasco has pitched to an ugly 5.93 ERA with an even uglier 1.53 WHIP. He’s the precise archetype of pitcher you want to see in the probables when considering an over.
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Under 8.5 (-118)
The Royals are an unders machine. Kansas City comes into Monday’s action 40-57-3 to the over, meaning its hit the under on a whopping 58.8% of its games so far in 2024 — the third-highest mark in MLB. In terms of recency bias, the Royals also happen to be 5-0 on the under in their last five contests, which isn’t all that shocking when you consider their inability to consistently score runs. Since the start of June, Kansas City ranks 25th in wOBA (.300) and 26th in both OBP (.298) and wRC+ (90). Outside of Bobby Witt Jr. and occasionally Sal Perez, there just aren’t many dangerous bats in the team’s lineup.
Another aspect of the Royals’ love of unders is the squad’s solid rotation. At the front of that unit? Cole Ragans. The left-hander was a first-time All-Star this season, yet it feels like Ragans is getting less attention this season than when he broke onto the scene in the second-half of 2023. That’s especially odd because Ragans has been even better in his second season with Kansas City. Across 116.2 innings of work, the 26-year-old has maintained a 3.16 ERA and a sterling 2.66 FIP. Ragans also sits fourth in all of baseball with 141 strikeouts.
Yilber Diaz doesn’t come with the same track record or pedigree, but the rookie RHP has looked like he belongs at the MLB level in his first two outings with the Diamondbacks. In fact, Diaz has registered back-to-back quality starts, going six innings against both the Braves and the Blue Jays and only conceding a single earned run in both contests. If he can muster a similar performance versus the scuffling Royals, I don’t think we’ll even have to sweat this total.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
