By Rachel Mealey: So what do the next days hold for President Biden? If he were to step down, how does the Democratic Party manage the road ahead? Emma Shortis is a senior researcher from the Australia Institute, and John Barron is the host of Planet America on ABC TV. They joined me a short time ago. Emma Shortus, it now seems there’s an inevitability about President Biden standing down from the nomination. Is that how you’re reading it?
Emma Shortis : It is, and I think it’s how it’s been heading for some time now, you know, given that such high profile Democrats, even in the last few days, including Chuck Schumer, the Senate Majority Leader, have come out fairly publicly and said they think Biden should step aside. I think this has been inevitable for a little while now, yes.
Rachel Mealey: John Barron, the President has COVID. How do they even manage the logistics of an announcement like this? He’s really against the ropes in so many ways, isn’t he?
John Barron : I would imagine that we would be hearing in the next 24, 48 or more hours that he’s returning to the White House and an Oval Office address has been scheduled. That’s what Lyndon Johnson did in 1968, the last president to announce that he would not be seeking re-election. He was dropping out of his campaign. Joe Biden won’t want the chaos of a press conference with shouted questions. He’ll want the dignity that the office and, indeed, his career has earned.
Rachel Mealey: Emma, if President Biden were to bow out, do you think he’ll endorse Kamala Harris? How does the party manage this?
Emma Shortis : Look, I think he will endorse Harris for a number of reasons, one of them being his legacy, I think, and his commitment to shoring up his legacy, because if he doesn’t endorse Harris, then he’s undermining his own decision-making, you know, when he picked her as vice president. And I think he’s also, he’s a party man at the end of the day, and he wouldn’t want to see his party descend into chaos. I think that many high-profile Democrats have been very worried about that and will want to make it as smooth a transition as possible.
Rachel Mealey: John, there is disquiet in the Democrat ranks. How do they manage the nomination if, again, President Biden were to drop out?
John Barron : Well, if he does endorse Kamala Harris, that certainly makes her the overwhelming favourite, but it is not impossible for another Democrat to decide they’re going to challenge Kamala Harris at the convention, which is in Chicago in mid-August. There is some polling to suggest that Kamala Harris may not even be the strongest alternative to Donald Trump and that a Midwestern governor, such as Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, or Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, would be a better alternative, certainly at winning those two so-called blue-wall, Rust Belt states that any Democrat realistically has to win this November in order to hold on to the White House. So there could be a contest still. There could also be a compromise that is brokered by party elders who would say, well, it’s going to be Harris Shapiro or it’s going to be Harris Whitmer because they have to choose a vice president and that could be an important choice as well. But if there is a contested convention, an optimist would say this will be a wonderful pageant of democracy, but usually these things end up in chaos. In 1968, when Lyndon Johnson stood down, there ended up being fistfights on the floor of the Chicago convention and riots on the streets outside so it can become a very bad look very quickly.
Rachel Mealey: Emma Shortis, a pageant of democracy or total chaos on the floor of the Democratic National Convention?
Emma Shortis : Look, I think John’s right. You know, the Democrats are very, as a collective, I suppose, have been very risk-averse since 1968. So I very much doubt it would be allowed to descend into that kind of chaos. And I certainly don’t think that’s inevitable even if the candidacy is contested. You know, I think there seems to be momentum in the Democratic Party now towards unity. And I think particularly to framing themselves as the opposite to what they’ve described as the hatred coming out of the Republican National Convention. You know, knowing the Democrats, this is likely to be a highly staged, managed process as much as they can get away with that.
Rachel Mealey: John, what a week in US politics. An attempted assassination, the Republican Convention, JD Vance’s nomination, a bout of COVID for president. Is there time enough now for the Democrats to right the ship in time to take on the Republicans in November?
John Barron : Well, in theory, of course, Rachel, there is. It is three weeks today since that disastrous first debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump sent Democrats into a tailspin about Biden’s ability not only to win November’s election, but to serve another four years as president of the United States. There’s been a tremendous amount of hand-wringing that said, how did we get in this situation where a successful president has decided to run for another term at an age beyond which anybody has ever served in the White House? He wanted another four years when they had this pretty deep bench of talent just waiting to take over the mantle. And he had promised that, all but promised that to many Democratic ears in 2020 when he said it’d be a bridge to the next generation. Turns out it is a long bridge and it’s collapsing.
Rachel Mealey: John Barron and Emma Shortis, thanks very much for joining The World Today.
Emma Shortis : Thanks, Rachel.
John Barron : Thanks, Rachel.
John Barron : That’s John Barron, the host of Planet America on ABC TV, and Emma Shortis, a senior researcher from the Australia Institute.
