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NFL Week 1 picks, predictions and best bets for Sunday’s games
Lorenzo is back, and he’s bringing you his favorite bets for each week of the NFL season. Watch to find out which picks he likes for Sunday’s slate of games.
The 2024 NFL season officially launched Thursday night, the two-time-defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs defeating the Baltimore Ravens 27-20 in a rematch of the 2023 AFC championship game and the first of this campaign’s 272 regular-season games.
It was a nail-biter to the end, largely dictated by some of the league’s top superstars but also a stage for some apparent up-and-comers. It could also carry major playoff ramifications, K.C. already holding what could be a valuable head-to-head tiebreaker that would set any potential playoff rematch back at Arrowhead Stadium.
In sum? It’s just one game. But, as always, the winners and losers extend beyond the scoreboard:
WINNERS
Chiefs
Their bid to become the first team to achieve a Super Bowl three-peat is off to a good start a year after they lost the seasonal kickoff game at home to the Detroit Lions. Three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes didn’t have his best night, but it’s pretty obvious this offense is primed to be far more dangerous than it’s been in recent years. Next up? Ten days to recover and prepare for the Cincinnati Bengals, who come to Arrowhead Stadium for Week 2.
Matt Araiza
After a two-year delay due to a dropped accusation of committing rape while at San Diego State, he made his NFL debut with K.C. A ballyhooed sixth-round draft pick of the Buffalo Bills in 2022, the “Punt God” averaged 48 yards on his three boots Thursday, the final one pinning Baltimore deep in their own territory inside the final two minutes.
Rashee Rice
The Chiefs’ No. 1 wide receiver is dealing with his own legal issues after a notorious offseason following his sensational rookie season. Rice is likely to face NFL discipline at some point after being involved in a six-car crash in Dallas, where he was driving a Lamborghini nearly 120 mph this April, according to police. Rice is facing one count of aggravated assault, one count of collision involving serious bodily injury and six counts of collision involving injury. However the league doesn’t typically mete out suspensions until the legal process has concluded … which enabled him to reel in team highs with seven receptions for 103 yards.
Taylor Swift
The pop mega star ran her personal win streak to six in Chiefs games she’s personally attended while supporting boyfriend Travis Kelce.
Isaiah Likely’s fantasy owners
After a strong 2023 season, when the second-year tight end became a major component of Baltimore’s offense in the absence of injured Mark Andrews, he appears to be emerging as QB Lamar Jackson’s favorite target. Likely had a 49-yard TD catch-and-run, which greatly contributed to his game-best (and career-high) nine receptions and 111 receiving yards.
Chiefs’ shiny new acquisition
WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City’s first-round pick after setting a scouting combine record with a 4.21-second 40-yard dash, had quite the regular-season debut – scoring TDs on a 21-yard run in the first quarter and what turned out to be a game-clinching 35-yard scoring reception from Mahomes in the final period. No question Worthy is going to be a problem, probably more so when veteran blazer Hollywood Brown is healthy enough to return to the lineup.
Lamar Jackson
He accounted for 395 yards of offense, including a game-high 122 rushing yards. Not a winning performance, but one that might eventually help him build toward a third league MVP award.
LOSERS
Lamar Jackson
His fumble led to a second-quarter field goal for Kansas City. Worse, Jackson missed a wide-open Zay Flowers in the end zone on the game’s penultimate play – saying afterward he should have held on to the ball longer to connect with Flowers but didn’t actually target him on the throw in question. Jackson’s record against Mahomes and the Chiefs dropped to 1-5.
Ravens’ smudged new acquisition
Baltimore’s big free-agent signing, RB Derrick Henry, finished with 46 yards on 13 carries and did conclude the opening drive with a 5-yard TD run. But he seemed to disappear for lengthy stretches after that, and questions will remain as to how well his power style will mesh with Jackson’s elusive one, though Henry’s presence will likely open rush lanes for his quarterback – as it did Thursday night.
Isaiah Likely’s fantasy owners
You know you greedy mothers were angry when his toe caught the back line of the end zone on the game’s final play, negating a 10-yard TD that could have meant a Ravens (and fantasy?) win – coach John Harbaugh seemed ready to go for two and the victory – or, at least, send the contest into overtime.
Mark Andrews’ fantasy owners
Two catches, 14 yards, Likely specter. Sorry, y’all.
Travis Kelce’s fantasy owners
(This has nothing to do with Swift.) For the others who love Kelce … three catches, 34 yards.
Justin Tucker
He’ll probably be the rare kicker who winds up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. But after going 1-for-5 on field-goal attempts beyond 50 yards in 2023, Tucker was wide left on a 53-yarder Thursday.
Harrison Butker
The Chiefs kicker remains wide of the mark elsewhere, but that’s a different story.
Baltimore’s O-line
For a unit breaking in three new starters and dealing with the sudden death of positional coach Joe D’Alessandris, it could have gone worse. But there didn’t appear to be much daylight for Henry. Jackson got bum-rushed by All-Pro DT Chris Jones on his fumble after rookie RT Roger Rosengarten entered the game. And then there were the line’s four illegal formation penalties, three on LT Ronnie Stanley. Not. Great.
Chiefs defense
A unit that ranked second in the league last season was scorched for 452 yards – 70 more than it allowed in any of its 21 contests during the 2023 season. K.C. also struggled to get off the field on third downs, Baltimore converting half of its 14 attempts.
‘Dynamic kickoff’ rule
Uh. A high-profile, XFL-style alteration designed to bring the kickoff back to relevance … just hasn’t yet. There were 11 kickoffs Thursday but just two non-descript returns, an early suggestion that teams are likely going to settle for touchbacks that start drives on an opponent’s 30-yard line rather than risk a game-changing runback.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.
